What question did this study set out to answer?

This research aims to test the U-Cell Model's predictions about dark energy and matter density against cosmological data.

April 5, 2026Open Access

Three Independent Cosmological Probes Consistent with the Parameter-Free U-Cell Model Prediction Omegaₘ=0. 3166, w=-1

Key Points

This research aims to test the U-Cell Model's predictions about dark energy and matter density against cosmological data.
Evaluated UCM predictions using three probes: BAO, Type Ia supernovae, and CMB shift parameters.
Compared fit statistics (chi²) of UCM against the ΛCDM model with several data points.
Applied Bayesian Information Criterion to assess model performance.
UCM shows better fit than ΛCDM in all probes with lower chi² values.
Combined analysis over 37 data points yields chi²/dof = 1.247 for UCM vs 1.331 for ΛCDM.
Bayesian Information Criterion favors UCM with a ΔBIC of +3.26.

Abstract

The U-Cell Model (UCM) predicts Omegaₘ=0. 3166, w=-1 exactly, and OmegaLambda, 0=0. 6834 from first principles with zero free parameters. Tested against three independent cosmological probes: (i) DESI DR1 BAO (13 data points): chi²/dof = 18. 52/13 = 1. 425, better than Planck ΛCDM at 18. 94/12 = 1. 578; (ii) Pantheon+ Type Ia supernovae (24 bins): chi²/dof = 1. 147 vs ΛCDM 1. 196 after MB marginalisation; (iii) Planck 2018 CMB shift parameters: 1. 8sigma tension in lₐ, resolved at Omegab h²=0. 02246 (0. 6sigma from Planck, 0. 5sigma from BBN). Combined over 37 BAO+SN data points: UCM chi²/dof = 1. 247 (dof=36) vs ΛCDM 1. 331 (dof=34). The Bayesian Information Criterion gives ΔBIC=+3. 26 in favour of UCM. Three sharp predictions: w=-1 (Euclid DR1, October 2026), Omegab h²=0. 02246 (CMB-S4, Simons Observatory), sigmaₑff/vflat=0. 463 (Euclid weak lensing).

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