Opposite effects of ocean temperature on survival rates of 120 stocks of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in northern and southern areas

To improve the understanding of linkages between ocean conditions and salmon productivity, we estimated effects of ocean temperature on survival rates of three species of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) across 120 stocks. This multistock approach permitted more precise estimates of effects than standard single-stock analyses. The estimated effects were opposite in sign between northern and southern stocks and were quite consistent across stocks within species and areas. Warm anomalies in coastal temperatures were associated with increased survival rates for stocks in Alaska and decreased survival rates in Washington and British Columbia, suggesting that different mechanisms determine survival rates in the two areas. Regional-scale sea surface temperatures (SST, within several hundred kilometres of a stock's ocean entry point) were a much better predictor of survival rates than large-scale climate anomalies associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), suggesting that survival rates are primarily linked to environmental conditions at regional spatial scales. With appropriate cautions, these results may be used to predict the potential effects of climatic changes on salmon productivity in different areas of the Northeast Pacific.