Exchange rates, global uncertainty and stock performance: connectedness in leading Asian tech firms

Purpose This study investigates how exchange rate movements and global uncertainty shocks affect the stock returns of major Asian high-technology firms. It examines whether these effects are state-dependent and horizon-specific, and how firm business models and exchange-rate regimes shape the transmission of shocks. Design/methodology/approach Using daily data from 2019 to 2024, the study analyzes five leading Asian high-tech firms – Samsung, Tencent, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), Sony and Alibaba – together with their bilateral USD exchange rates and global uncertainty indices (VIX, OVX and GVZ). A dual-method framework is employed, combining the R2 connectedness approach to identify directional and dynamic spillovers with wavelet quantile correlation to capture time-frequency and state-dependent dependence across market conditions. Findings The results reveal strong heterogeneity in exchange rate and uncertainty transmission across firms, market states and investment horizons. Platform-based firms (Tencent and Alibaba) emerge as persistent net transmitters of shocks, primarily through global risk-sentiment channels, while hardware- and export-oriented firms (Samsung, TSMC and Sony) act mainly as net receivers, with spillovers driven by currency and input-cost channels. Exchange rate effects are weak in the short run but become economically significant at medium-to-long horizons, particularly for export-intensive firms. Global uncertainty shocks exert stronger effects during risk-off states, with connectedness intensifying markedly during crisis periods. Originality/value This study contributes to the emerging markets literature by providing firm-level evidence on exchange rate–equity linkages using a multiscale, state-dependent framework. By integrating connectedness and wavelet-quantile methods, it offers new insights into how global uncertainty and currency regimes jointly shape shock transmission in Asia's high-technology sector.