Counter-terrorism cooperation in Central Asia after the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan: strategic and institutional adaptation

The August 2021 withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s subsequent takeover sent shockwaves across Central Asia. While the return of the Taliban has been widely regarded as a threat to regional security, Afghanistan’s neighbors have taken a pragmatic approach to the regime, pursuing a policy of selective engagement. The February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, now in its fourth year, has further deteriorated the security environment in Central Asia. This ongoing conflict has weakened Russia’s traditional role as a provider of military stability and has facilitated the expansion of China’s security presence in the region. The overall aim of this study is to examine how changes in the regional security environment, specifically the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have impacted China’s counter-terrorism strategy in Central Asia. The study is divided into three distinct sections. Following the introduction, Section 2 presents an analytic framework for assessing strategic and institutional adaptation of security actors in the realm of counter-terrorism. Section 3 focuses on the period between the 9/11 attacks and the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, mapping out the emergence and evolution of counter-terrorism cooperation across multilateral, minilateral, and bilateral levels. Section 4 examines strategic and institutional adaptation measures developed by China and its Central Asian partners in response to the Taliban’s 2021 takeover of Afghanistan. The findings of this study will contribute to the ongoing discussion on non-Western responses to transnational security threats, and how those responses relate to liberal interventionism.