Do crises catalyse regional cooperation? Reassessing the viability of crisis-driven regionalism in Northeast Asia

Abstract Recent research highlights the crisis-driven approach for regional institution-building, suggesting that crises enhance the utility of regionalism. This study questions the applicability of crisis-driven regionalism in Northeast Asia, emphasising why certain crises catalyse regionalist efforts while others do not. We clarify the working mechanisms of critical juncture approaches and identify three variables influencing the effectiveness of crisis-driven regionalism, each operating at different stages – pre-crisis, in-crisis, and post-crisis. First, exogenous crises are more likely to trigger cooperation than endogenous ones, as the latter provoke disputes over the origins and responsibilities of the crisis. Second, crises should foster collective action and shared agendas among states, rather than being confined to respective domestic efforts of individual states. Lastly, we focus on the continuity of cooperative policies in the post-crisis period. This study examines the global financial crisis, environmental pollution, and COVID-19 as three illustrative cases – including both positive and negative instances – of crisis-driven regionalism, analysing why these crises have generated, or failed to generate, substantive cooperative outcomes.