Critical minerals are central to industrial strategies in the Global South, but evidence on how such policies reshape domestic production is limited. This paper maps Indonesia’s nickel ecosystem before and after the 2014 export ban using input–output multipliers and labor intensity from the 2010, 2016, and 2020 input–output tables. We provide a descriptive account of nickel’s evolving economic trajectory during the downstreaming push. Three patterns stand out. Forward linkages declined from 16 to 8 and backward linkages moved from 75 to 73, suggesting a narrower structure with greater specialization in higher value, more capital-intensive activities. Output multipliers rose most in sectors that support the electric vehicle supply chain, including professional and technical services, machinery, fabricated metals, transport equipment, energy, and finance. In contrast, the labor multiplier fell from about 6514 to 3366 jobs per IDR 1 trillion of final demand, implying a higher value added alongside lower employment intensity. Overall, downstreaming appears to work through structural concentration and growth in complementary sectors rather than broad-based diversification. Complementary policies in skills, regional development, and energy infrastructure are therefore critical for inclusive industrial transformation.
Asyono et al. (Fri,) studied this question.