Water quality analysis using the CCME-WQI method with time series analysis in a water supply reservoir

Abstract The quality of the drinking water source reservoirs has always been a research hotspot. However, few have studies focused on the water quality of reservoirs over a relatively long period with time series analysis. In this paper, based on water quality and hydrological data from 2010 to 2020, considering 8 water quality parameters, CCME-WQI with time series analysis was used to explore the interannual and seasonal changes in water quality in the Weishui Reservoir. Furthermore, the main factors affecting water quality were discussed through correlation analysis. The ARIMA model is used to predict water quality in the future. The results show that the water quality was seriously polluted from 2012 to 2013. After 2018, the water quality gradually improved and stabilized. In addition, the water quality is affected by inflow, showing the characteristics of poor water quality in summer and winter. The key parameters affecting water quality are TN and TP, which are almost 2 times higher than the grade II standard of water quality standard. Through the ARIMA model, it is predicted that CCME-WQI is maintained at 80.46 indicating that the water quality will be stable in the future.