Photovoltaic carbon reduction potential analysis and layout optimization coupling future development scenarios: A case study of Inner Mongolia, China

• A framework for PV carbon reduction and spatial optimization was developed. • The pvlib package and life cycle assessment methods were integrated. • Spatial visualization of multiple future PV development scenarios was achieved. • Priority should be given to PV development in desert regions. In addressing the global challenge of climate change, the photovoltaic industry plays a crucial role. In recent years, China’s photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly and maintained international leadership, requiring a deeper systematic understanding of its future carbon reduction potential and spatial layout optimization strategies. This study constructed a decision-making framework for photovoltaic carbon reduction potential analysis and spatial layout optimization, coupling future development scenarios, and conducted a case study in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China. The research integrated the PVLIB Python function package with life cycle assessment methods to optimize the estimation of annual power generation and carbon reduction benefits of solar farms. Combined with regional policies and development plans, multiple photovoltaic development scenarios for 2030 and 2060 were constructed to characterize the distribution patterns of solar farms in the study area under different development scenarios. On this basis, the carbon reduction potential was quantified, and layout optimization strategies were explored. The results showed that photovoltaic development in the study area was rapid from 2013 to 2023, bringing nearly 25-fold growth in annual power generation and carbon reduction benefits. Photovoltaic facilities deployed in high-suitability areas will bring significant carbon reduction potential, while improving the installed capacity of the entire study area is more effective for enhancing carbon reduction potential compared to changing the proportion of installed capacity in different regions. The annual carbon reduction potential in the study area could reach up to seven times the current level by 2060, with the desert regions contributing 78 % of this increase. The study area still has considerable photovoltaic development potential, and it is recommended to prioritize the development of high-suitability areas in the western sand desert, gravel desert, and other desert regions while accelerating the configuration of the entire photovoltaic industry chain. The research results can provide decision support for regional photovoltaic industry development planning, and the research framework has important reference value for national and even global-scale energy transition planning.