The Eastern Mediterranean: Beneath blue waters, strong currents reshape the balance

The Eastern Mediterranean has acquired growing strategic importance for the EU. It is not only the Union’s easternmost external border, but also a gateway to the Middle East, the Gulf, the Maghreb, the Balkans and, beyond them, Eastern Europe, the Black Sea and the Caucasus. At the dawn of the twenty-first century, the discovery of hydrocarbon resources in the Eastern Mediterranean basin generated expectations that the area would undergo a positive geopolitical transformation. Many analysts assumed that economic incentives and shared energy interests would serve as catalysts for cooperation in a region long marked by instability. Türkiye, however, continues to project itself as a regional hegemon, a view shaped by perceptions of its size, history and imperial legacy. Through assertive diplomacy and military power projection, Ankara is seeking to impose its strategic preferences and signal that regional developments require its consent. This article examines the drivers of Türkiye’s assertive policy in the Eastern Mediterranean and analyses the responses of regional and foreign actors striving to safeguard their strategic interests.