With the increasing application of the Vertical Shaft Machine (VSM) method in ultra-deep shafts, accurate prediction of construction-induced structural stresses is vital for engineering safety. Currently, VSM is predominantly used in soft soils, where structural response analysis still relies on finite element (FE) simulations that are computationally intensive and complex to model. To improve analysis efficiency and understand the structural behavior of VSM shafts in granite composite strata, this study takes the first VSM shaft project in South China—the Guangzhou–Huadu Intercity Railway Shield Shaft—as a case study. A “monitoring-driven, large-sample data, machine learning substitution” framework is proposed for predicting structural stresses during construction. The framework calibrates an FE model using monitoring data. Through full factorial design, key design parameters—including main reinforcement diameter, stirrup diameter, concrete strength grade, and steel plate thickness—are systematically varied. Parametric FE simulations are then conducted to construct large-sample response databases (540 sets for ring 0 and 864 sets for the cutting edge ring). Genetic algorithm is introduced to optimize the hyperparameters of Random Forest, XGBoost, and Neural Network models, and their predictive performances are systematically compared. Results show that the proposed framework effectively substitutes traditional FE analysis and enables rapid multi-parameter comparison. Among the models, GA-XGBoost achieves the highest prediction accuracy across all stress indicators (R2 > 0.999, where R2 is the coefficient of determination, with values closer to 1 indicating better predictive performance), demonstrating the superiority of its gradient boosting and regularization mechanisms in handling tabular data with strong physical correlations. Moreover, the method exhibits good extensibility to other engineering response predictions beyond construction stresses.
Cheng et al. (Sat,) studied this question.