Terrestrial carbon sequestration potential assessment: concept, method, and perspective

Accurately quantifying the terrestrial ecosystems’ carbon sequestration potential (CSP) is critical for climate mitigation, ecological security, and carbon neutrality. However, current assessments are persistently hampered by methodological inconsistencies and conceptual ambiguities, which propagate into substantial uncertainties in global carbon budgets. To address these, we systematize the mechanisms of carbon sequestration and establish precise definitions within a hierarchical CSP framework encompassing three tiers, i.e., theoretical (biophysical upper limit), maximum actual (technically achievable), and actual CSP (socio-economically constrained). We further conduct a critical review of mainstream assessment methodologies, demonstrating that integrating process-based models with emerging data-model fusion techniques offers the most effective pathway toward reducing estimation uncertainties. This framework offers a standardized evaluation approach, providing a robust foundation for CSP assessments and adaptive management under global change.