Iran has an arid and semi-arid area located in the dry region of Middle East. Irrigated and dryland farming systems are the main sources for food supply and production in a vast area of Iran. Blue and green water are the main water resources for food production in Iran. However, blue water resources have been under huge pressure in recent decades for food security without paying attention to water security. This has led to a naive water-food nexus. Now, Iran is facing a dramatic condition in blue water resources and many plains and aquifers are experiencing water bankruptcy. The Iran government has recently released an action plan towards 2030 to focus on expanding dryland farming for improved use of green water resources (rainfall) and simultaneously reduce irrigated farming area to relieve pressure on blue water resources (groundwater). In this study, we analyzed the current water and food sector of Iran and argued whether this plan could be suitably achieved in terms of society, technically and governmentally. The analyses indicate that water crisis in Iran is a complex socio-political and economic challenge, extending beyond mere low rainfall. Our analysis revealed that achieving a sustainable water-food future in Iran demands a paradigm shift. The government and agricultural sector must prioritize water resource protection over output, focusing on green water productivity in dryland farming, capping irrigated land expansion, implementing soil and water conservation initiatives, and strategically managing blue water. This requires an integrated approach considering technology, innovation, policy reform, local context understanding, and protecting vulnerable livelihoods. Our analysis also indicates that dryland farming could not be a feasible, low-risk, and sustainable agricultural practice in Iran due to severe impact of climate change in terms of increasing air temperature and highly erratic rainfall pattern and amount, making it a high-risk policy in Iran’s food production system. Clearly, to feed the increasing population amid decreasing water resources, the Iran government must focus on new polices for virtual water trade and reliable food import.
Ahmadi et al. (Thu,) studied this question.