Grid-level population projection is essential for spatial planning under demographic decline, particularly for ensuring that population allocation accounts for grid extinction risk. This study develops a two-stage machine learning framework to predict residential grid transitions across South Korea’s 1 km grid system and assess how spatial policies shape depopulation outcomes through 2050. Stage 1 employs Random Forest classification to predict grid state transitions (macro-averaged F1 score = 0.694), while Stage 2 applies LightGBM regression for population prediction (coefficient of determination = 0.950). The extinction probability map from Stage 1 is incorporated into scenario simulations to adjust population allocation based on predicted residential viability. Feature importance analysis reveals that baseline population, household count, and demographic composition are key determinants of grid-level residential transitions. Five spatial development scenarios simulated through 2050 reveal substantial policy sensitivity. Cumulative extinction rates range from 3.1% under extreme dispersion to 24.5% under extreme concentration, representing a 25 percentage point divergence attributable to spatial allocation policy. Provincial heterogeneity is pronounced, with rural provinces facing extinction rates up to 39.9% while metropolitan areas remain largely unaffected. Comparing scenario outcomes enables pre-identification of policy-sensitive grids (19.5%) where allocation choices determine residential survival. These grids are predominantly located in areas with high forest cover and greater spatial isolation compared to stable grids, but differ in demographic profiles. Aging-Vulnerable grids (14.0%) exhibit high aging ratios with limited economic base, while Moderate-Vulnerability grids (5.5%) show younger demographics with relatively higher economic activity. These differential characteristics provide a spatially explicit basis for differentiated policy responses. Beyond depopulation planning, the spatial outputs of this framework can inform related planning domains such as land use transition planning, carbon management, and infrastructure prioritization under demographic decline.
Jo et al. (Thu,) studied this question.