The deliverable D2.1, "Map of Railway Needs in 2030," is a cornerstone of the LEADER 2030 Exploratory Research Project under the EU-RAIL MAWP 2022. This document provides essential intelligence to support the implementation of all Flagship Projects within the EU-Rail initiative, aligning with the strategic objectives outlined in the ERJU Master Plan and Multi-Annual Work Program. Objective and Scope The primary objective of D2.1 is to comprehensively map railway innovations expected by 2030, identifying necessary technologies, raw materials, and supply chain requirements across various tiers (OEM, Tier 1, 2, 3). The study integrates findings from Deliverable D1.3, "Supply Alerts for the Future," to assess potential disruptions and their impact on EU-RAIL innovations. Additionally, the report highlights subsystems and components that will become obsolete or significantly reduced due to technological advancements, signaling key areas of industry transformation. WP2 is instrumental in ensuring that Europe’s rail ecosystem remains resilient, sustainable, and competitive. Through a structured analysis of the Flagship Areas (FAs) and their respective Flagship Projects (FPs), WP2 provides insights into how OEMs and suppliers must adapt to evolving digitalization, automation, and green energy trends. These shifts necessitate greater standardization, interoperability, and a strategic move toward sustainable material sourcing, ensuring the railway industry is future-ready. Key Innovations and Technologies WP2 identifies several transformative innovations essential for the future of European rail: · Network Management & Mobility (FP1 - MOTIONAL): Advanced traffic management systems, real-time data analytics, and digital platforms enhance operational efficiency and network capacity. · Digital & Autonomous Train Operations (FP2 - R2DATO): Automatic Train Operation (ATO), AI-driven control systems, and advanced sensor technologies improve safety, reliability, and cost efficiency. · Intelligent & Integrated Asset Management (FP3 - IAM4RAIL): Predictive maintenance systems, Digital-Twins, and IoT-based sensors optimize asset lifecycle and reduce maintenance costs. · Sustainable & Green Rail Systems (FP4 - RAIL4EARTH): Energy-efficient propulsion, sustainable materials, and emissions reduction technologies drive sustainability efforts. · Competitive Digital Green Rail Freight (FP5 - TRANS4M-R): Digital Automatic Couplers (DAC), intelligent freight systems, and smart grid integration enhance efficiency and sustainability for seamless rail freight. · Regional & Capillary Rail Services (FP6 - FUTURE): Modular vehicles, cost-efficient infrastructure, and customer-centric digital services improve accessibility and affordability. · New Approaches for Guided Transport (FP7 - Pods4Rail): Automated multimodal transport systems and ultra-high-speed trains introduce innovative mobility solutions. WP2 underscores the needed increasing role of SMEs in emerging areas such as cybersecurity, AI-driven automation, and modular rolling stock. The mapping exercise identifies key raw materials, including metals and rare earth elements, crucial for these innovations. Additionally, it assesses supply chain resilience and alternative sourcing strategies to mitigate risks associated with material dependencies and geopolitical uncertainties. Obsolescence, Disruptions, and Criticalities in the Rail Supply Chain The shift towards digital, automated, and sustainable rail systems under EU-RAIL will phase out legacy components while increasing reliance on critical raw materials (including the Heavy Rare Earth Elements -HREE- and Light Rare Earth Elements -LREE-). § Obsolescence & Disruptions By 2030, manual coupling, non-digital signaling, condition monitoring, diesel propulsion, and conventional HVAC should be largely replaced by Digital Automatic Couplers (DAC), AI-driven systems, electrification, and energy-efficient technologies. However, supply chain risks—such as semiconductor shortages, rare earth dependencies, and cybersecurity vulnerabilities—could also slow deployment. § Critical Raw Materials & Risks The rail sector will increasingly depend on materials like Gallium (Ga, Neodymium (Nd) and Dysprosium (Dy) for high-efficiency communication, lithium (Li) for batteries, and silicon (Si) for AI-driven automation. Copper and Steel needs increasing as well across the technology innovation of the flagship project. While the LEADER 2030 roadmap extends to 2030, consultation interviews advocate for an increased use of Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) products. As a result, some criticalities may be perceived by the consulted stakeholders as moderate or low by 2030, also because only part of EU-RAIL innovations will reach the market by then. The truth is that not everything can be COTS, both by and beyond 2030, and criticalities will remain strategically important, as shown by the increased effort of the European Commission in ensuring Europe’s Strategic Autonomy – which can prove a harder goal with the current evolution of geopolitics. Therefore, ensuring long-term supply chain resilience, industrial autonomy, and adaptability to future technological shifts remains a priority for Europe’s rail ecosystem.
Raimbault et al. (Wed,) studied this question.