Spatial and Temporal Change in Surface Air Temperature in the Tibetan Plateau and Future Warming as a Function of Global Warming

Using monthly surface air temperature observations from the CN05.1 dataset and simulations from 47 CMIP6 climate models, this study evaluates historical and future temperature changes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Observations reveal rapid warming during the historical period, with clear spatial heterogeneity characterized by relatively weaker warming in the southeastern Plateau and stronger warming elsewhere. CMIP6 models generally reproduce the historical warming trend but underestimate the observed warming magnitude in most seasons, and inter-model uncertainty is largest over the western Plateau. Future projections show a strong and robust positive relationship between TP warming and global mean temperature increase that is insensitive to the projection period, with a best-fit regression slope of approximately 1.36, indicating amplified warming over the Plateau relative to the global mean. The spatial patterns of future warming closely resemble those observed historically, suggesting that future changes largely represent an intensification of existing warming structures rather than a reorganization of spatial variability. In response to an additional 0.5 °C of global warming, the strongest temperature increases occur in autumn and winter, exceeding 0.8 °C across most regions, and the Plateau response strengthens with increasing global warming in winter, highlighting the elevated sensitivity and risk under incremental global temperature increases.