The Influence of Psychological Factors in the Search for Strategic Stability

Abstract: Many of the leaders of new nuclear powers sit atop regimes that are personalistic in nature, and thus less constrained by institutions or public opinion than more democratic regimes. Such authoritarian leaders have more freedom to allow their psychological proclivities to influence their decisions and behavior. These tendencies include four psychological biases that influence decision-making: overconfidence, the planning fallacy, the illusion of validity, and the prominence effect. The ubiquity of these biases challenges our existing assumptions about rationality and the nature of strategic stability. The introduction of new and potentially more dangerous weapons—including the use of artificial intelligence or hypersonic missiles—heightens the risk of misperception, miscalculation, increased time pressure, and other factors exacerbating the threats confronting the world’s nuclear powers. Lessons from both cognitive and evolutionary psychology are discussed, as well as some policy recommendations to help improve decision-making under conditions of dominant leadership styles.