Climate-Driven Shifts in Soybean Suitability in Brazil’s Arco Norte: Implications for Logistical Vulnerability

The expansion of Brazil’s agricultural frontier in Arco Norte has intensified environmental and socioeconomic concerns that may worsen under climate change. This study evaluates how climate-driven shifts in soybean suitability may reconfigure production patterns and affect logistical vulnerabilities. Three scenarios were modeled using the MaxEnt algorithm: a historical baseline (1970–2000) and two future projections (2041–2060) based on the CMIP6 climate pathways. The model integrated bioclimatic, physical, land-use and land-cover, and infrastructure variables. The results showed that soybean expansion was highly concentrated across all scenarios. Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Tocantins accounted for 82.7% to 85.5% of total projected expansion, while Bahia and Maranhão increased this share to more than 92% of total gains. Although consolidated areas absorbed most of the expansion, new frontiers still represented nearly 30% of the total gains. A logistical vulnerability index linked potential expansion areas to grain storage deficits and revealed critical conditions in the main soybean-producing municipalities of Mato Grosso. These findings indicate a growing mismatch between emerging production areas and existing logistics infrastructure, highlighting the need for coordinated investments in storage, intermodal transportation, and territorial planning.