Abstract Number: Esoc2026a723 Impact of the Covid Pandemic on Stroke Admissions in a Scottish Health Board: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Abstract Background and aims Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic led to changes in healthcare utilisation patterns lasting several months. This study assessed the impact of the pandemic on stroke admissions in a National Health Service (NHS) Health Board in northeast Scotland. Methods Data on strokes between 1 January 2015 and 30 September 2021 were collected from the NHS Grampian Stroke Care Audit. An interrupted time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was conducted to compare the expected number of admissions versus the actual number of admissions. Results There were 4453 confirmed strokes (47.5% women, median age (interquartile range) 77.0 (67.0 – 84.5) years) in Grampian during the study period. Taking trend and seasonality into account, the ARIMA models showed the COVID-19 pandemic starting in March 2020 was associated with an immediate decrease in all stroke admissions (step change = -5.967), with a recovery of ramp = 0.779 admissions per month (Figure 1). When stratified by age and sex, a statistically significant immediate decrease was observed in male stroke admissions (step change = -4.942) with a recovery of ramp = 0.597 admissions per month and, in the 80 years and over stroke admissions (step change = - 5.724) with a recovery of ramp = 0.502 admissions per month. No significant differences were observed in female stroke admissions or in those under 80 years. Conclusions The COVID pandemic was associated with a significant short-term decrease in stroke admissions in male patients and those 80 years and over, with a sustained recovery to previous numbers over the next months. Conflict of interest "Kadie-Ann Sterling: nothing to disclose"; "Melanie Turner: nothing to disclose"; "Mary Joan Macleod: nothing to disclose"; "Clarisse De Vries: nothing to disclose". Figure 1 - belongs to Results