Comparison of plasma biomarkers and amyloid PET for predicting memory decline in cognitively unimpaired individuals

BACKGROUND: We compared the ability of several plasma biomarkers versus amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) to predict rates of memory decline among cognitively unimpaired individuals. METHODS: We studied 645 Mayo Clinic Study of Aging participants. Predictor variables were age, sex, education, apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 genotype, amyloid PET, and plasma amyloid beta (Aβ)42/40, phosphorylated tau (p-tau)181, neurofilament light (NfL), glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), and p-tau217. The outcome was a change in a memory composite measure. RESULTS: All plasma biomarkers, except NfL, were associated with mean memory decline in models with individual biomarkers. However, amyloid PET and plasma p-tau217, along with age, were key variables independently associated with mean memory decline in models combining all predictors. Confidence intervals were narrow for estimates of population mean prediction, but person-level prediction intervals were wide. DISCUSSION: Plasma p-tau217 and amyloid PET provide useful information about predicting rates of future cognitive decline in cognitively unimpaired individuals at the population mean level, but not at the individual person level.