Past trends, alternative futures, and energy demand scenarios for Bangladesh

Abstract In developing countries like Bangladesh, demand for energy services is expected to grow with the expansion of economic activity and population. Reliance on fossil fuels with a less diversified fuel mix poses challenges to sustainable energy sector growth. Studies indicate that there are feasible options for increasing the share of clean fuel in the energy mix if efforts are started without delay. Energy intensity is very slowly declining. Expediting access to efficient, modern technologies in all sectors can reduce wasteful energy use in service provision. There is a need for absolute growth in energy consumption to achieve a decent living standard (DLS) for all, and to support the aspiration level of the people of Bangladesh for a good life with higher wellbeing, urbanization, and access to modern appliances and infrastructure. This paper examines how alternative future scenarios, shaped by structural and demographic change, shifts in the fuel mix, technological innovation, and, above all, GDP growth aimed at enhancing human wellbeing, could influence energy demand pathways over time. We developed the SPINE (Service Provision Imagined with No Emissions) model, based on a decomposition approach for energy use, and applied it to generate alternative pathways to achieve Bangladesh’s nationally determined contributions (NDC) and energy demand consistent with the IPCC’s low energy demand (LED) scenario.