Analyzing the Concurrence of Meteorological Droughts and Warm Periods, with Implications for the Determination of Evaporative Regime

Abstract The hydroclimatic conditions under which a seasonal meteorological drought (below-normal seasonal rainfall) can induce an increase in seasonal air temperature are investigated, first with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and then with observations. Geographical differences in the dryness–warmth connection abound in the AGCM; in the United States, for example, identified evaporative controls tend to tie meteorological droughts to warmer temperatures in the South but not in the Northeast. The strong agreement between AGCM and observations-based geographical patterns of drought-induced warming supports the idea that the same evaporative controls are also present in nature. A powerful side benefit of the analysis of drought-induced warming is a Northern Hemisphere map, derived solely from observations, showing where total boreal summer evaporation is controlled by soil moisture, energy availability, or both.