The Selection Hypothesis and the Relationship between Trial and Plaintiff Victory

This paper develops implications of the selection hypothesis of Priest and Klein for the relationship between trial rates and plaintiff win rates. I find strong evidence for the selection hypothesis in estimated relationships between trial rates and plaintiff win rates at trial across case types and judges. I then structurally estimate the model on judge data, yielding estimates of the model's major parameters (the decision standard, the degree of stake asymmetry, and the uncertainty parameter) for each of three major case types, contracts, property rights, and torts.