Abstract: This study investigates whether short-term variability in the Tisserand parameter TJ can serve as a fast and computationally efficient proxy for long-term orbital stability in the main asteroid belt using the TJ defined with respect to Jupiter as the perturbing body. A sample of 66 asteroids spanning key dynamical regions was analysed using short-term observational data from NASA JPL Horizons and long-term numerical integrations performed with the REBOUND N-body framework. The time-dependent Tisserand parameter and its first-order sensitivity with respect to semi-major axis were evaluated and compared using a symmetric relative error metric. The results show mean discrepancies of 7. 96 % in TJ (t) and 9. 3% in its semi-major axis sensitivity, indicating reasonable agreement between short- and long-term dynamical behaviour. Weak correlations between error metrics suggest that the two quantities capture distinct aspects of orbital evolution, while increasing deviations toward the outer belt are consistent with longer-timescale perturbative effects. These findings suggest that the Tisserand parameter, when treated as a time-dependent quantity, can provide a useful first-order screening tool for asteroid stability, potentially reducing reliance on computationally expensive long-term integrations during early-stage dynamical analysis. Acknowledgement: We would like to thank Hanno Rein (University of Toronto) and Daniel Tamayo (Harvey Mudd College) for their advise and encouragement to conduct this study. This poster publication is funded by the Instrument Centre for Danish Astrophysics (IDA) for authors' conference expenses.
Amarsanaa et al. (Thu,) studied this question.