Structural Relationship Analysis between Cultural Foundation Budgets and Regional Economic Outcomes

This study empirically examines the impact of local cultural foundation budgets on local economies. Shifting focus from operational efficiency to the role of cultural budgets as investment capital, it uses a five-year panel dataset of basic local governments. A panel fixed-effects model with log transformation is employed to analyze the structural relationships between budgets and key indicators: GRDP, tourism index, restaurant counts, housing transactions, and net migration. The results show that budget expansion has a statistically significant positive (+) impact on the number of restaurants. Notably, a strong bidirectional relationship between restaurant counts, the tourism index, and budgets confirms a structurally virtuous cycle: cultural funding drives commercial revitalization, which enhances tourism attractiveness and subsequently expands the fiscal scale. Conversely, budget increases have a significantly negative (−) effect on housing transactions. This suggests a “settlement stability effect,” in which improved cultural quality of life increases residential satisfaction and reduces frequent mobility. Net migration remains more sensitive to GRDP than cultural budgets, highlighting the continued importance of economic incentives. These findings indicate that cultural expenditures foster immediate growth in production and tourism while enhancing community stability. Consequently, future evaluations should adopt a balanced approach, incorporating metrics such as commercial vitality and settlement stability, along with macroeconomic indicators such as GRDP.