Relation Between Baseline and On-Treatment Lipid Parameters and First Acute Major Coronary Events in the Air Force/Texas Coronary Atherosclerosis Prevention Study (AFCAPS/TexCAPS)

BACKGROUND: The Air Force/Texas Coronary Atherosclerosis Prevention Study (AFCAPS/TexCAPS) is the first primary-prevention study in a cohort with average total cholesterol (TC) and LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) and below-average HDL cholesterol (HDL-C). Treatment with lovastatin (20 to 40 mg/d) resulted in a 25% reduction in LDL-C and a 6% increase in HDL-C, as well as a 37% reduction in risk for first acute major coronary event (AMCE), defined as fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction, unstable angina, or sudden cardiac death. This article describes the relation between baseline and on-treatment lipid and apolipoprotein (apo) parameters and subsequent risk for AMCEs. METHODS AND RESULTS: With all available data from the entire 6605-patient cohort, a prespecified Cox backward stepwise regression model identified outcome predictors, and logistic regression models examined the relation between lipid variables and AMCE risk. Baseline LDL-C, HDL-C, and apoB were significant predictors of AMCE; only on-treatment apoB and the ratio of apoB to apoAI were predictive of subsequent risk; on-treatment LDL-C was not. When event rates were examined across tertiles of baseline lipids, a consistent benefit of treatment with lovastatin was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Persons with average TC and LDL-C levels and below-average HDL-C may obtain significant clinical benefit from primary-prevention lipid modification. On-treatment apoB, especially when combined with apoAI to form the apoB/AI ratio, may be a more accurate predictor than LDL-C of risk for first AMCE.