The risk of atrial fibrillation in the general male population: a lifetime follow-up of 50-year-old men

AIM: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence, incidence rate, and lifetime risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF) in a population-based study of Swedish men. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study is a part of 'The Study of Men Born in 1913', which is a longitudinal prospective cohort study of 855 men born in 1913 and living in the city of Gothenburg in Sweden. They were followed from the age of 50 years until 98 years with repeated examinations and data from the Swedish National Hospital Discharge Register. A total of 185 (21.6%) men developed AF. The prevalence of AF increased from 0.4% at 50 years old, to 1.9% by 60 years old, to 4.6% by 70 years old, to 12.5% by 80 years old, and to 15.7% by 90 years old. The lifetime risk of developing AF was 22.5%. CONCLUSION: Atrial fibrillation is rare at the age of 50 in Swedish men, but it increases exponentially with age, markedly accelerating after 70 years old. In nonagenarians, one of five men has or has had AF.