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The local, parliamentary and presidential elections that took place in May 2012 and their outcome raised fears in European capitals when the leader of the main opposition party, the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), Tomislav Nikolić managed to win the second round of balloting with a difference of more than two percent (49.54% / 47.31%). However, in the first round of presidential elections the pro-Western candidate, the incumbent President Boris Tadić, had managed to overtake his opponent, even if it was a narrow defeat (25.31% / 25.05%), and the polls, as well as some analysts, indicated a relatively secure victory of president Tadić in the second round. To understand the outcome of the second round, one has to analyze the political climate in Serbia from 2008 to 2012, as well as the changes in the positions of the main actors regarding the main topics of the public agenda.
Dan Lazea (Fri,) studied this question.