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BACKGROUND: Personality traits are increasingly used in athlete selection, yet their predictive validity varies across sports, levels, and cultural contexts. This review identifies which traits best predict performance and through what mechanisms. METHODS: Following PRISMA and a PROSPERO-registered protocol, we searched five databases through March 2025. Twenty-two cross-sectional studies (N = 4181 athletes; mean age 15-37 years; 14 countries; 18 sports) met inclusion criteria. Study quality was assessed via the STROBE checklist. RESULTS: Higher conscientiousness and extraversion consistently predicted superior performance (effect sizes ∼0.26-0.70), while neuroticism was negatively related (β up to -0.25). Three mechanisms emerged: (1) direct neurobiological effects via dopaminergic sensitivity and prefrontal regulation; (2) indirect psychological mediation through motivation and self-regulation; and (3) contextual moderation by sport type, competitive level, and cultural background. CONCLUSIONS: Conscientiousness, extraversion, and low neuroticism are robust, dynamic predictors of athletic success. Incorporating multi-trait assessments tailored to sport and culture can enhance talent identification. Future longitudinal, multi-method research with standardized metrics is warranted.
Xu et al. (Tue,) studied this question.