Computers, Prophecy, and Experience: A Historical Perspective

Although the opportunity for empirical investigation of the influence of computers on social norms, roles, and expectations in specific settings is relatively recent, the potential social impacts of the computer have been debated for 30 years. The foundations of discussions of the social effects of computers were founded on prophecies. These prophecies were influenced by an unrealistic perception of the computer as a “thinking machine,” value judgments about computing, and concurrent sociocultural concerns. Experience, meaning both the collective experience of participants in computing as well as a sprinkling of empirical studies, tended to disconfirm prophecies and to expose other issues related to the social context in which computers were used. Privacy, education, and employment issues are discussed as examples demonstrating this pattern. Informed choices about the use of computers in social contexts involve increasing the number and diversity of people participating in computer use and discussions about computing, developing criteria for making choices about how computers should be used, and undertaking systematic research.