Misperception and the Causes of War: Theoretical Linkages and Analytical Problems

The author presents a conceptualization of different forms of misperception and the theoretical linkages by which they may lead to war under certain conditions. The forms of misperception most directly relevant to war include misperceptions of the capabilities and intentions of both adversaries and third states. The theoretical linkages to war, which vary across these different forms, include the intervening variables of military overconfidence, unsuccessful strategies of coercive diplomacy or appeasement, conflict spirals and arms races, preemptive strikes, or the failure to prepare for war or to attempt to deter the adversary. Particular attention is given to conceptual and methodological problems involved in the identification of misperceptions and in the assessment of their causal impact on war.