An inductive modelling procedure based on Bayes' theorem for analysis of pattern in spatial data

Abstract This paper describes an inductive modelling procedure integrated with a geographical information system for analysis of pattern within spatial data. The aim of the modelling procedure is to predict the distribution within one data set by combining a number of other data sets. Data set combination is carried out using Bayes’ theorem. Inputs to the theorem, in the form of conditional probabilities, are derived from an inductive learning process in which attributes of the data set to be modelled are compared with attributes of a variety of predictor data sets. This process is carried out on random subsets of the data to generate error bounds on inputs for analysis of error propagation associated with the use of Bayes’ theorem to combine data sets in the GIS. The statistical significance of model inputs is calculated as part of the inductive learning process. Use of the modelling procedure is illustrated through the analysis of the winter habitat relationships of red deer in Grampian Region, north-east Scotland. The distribution of red deer in Deer Management Group areas in Gordon and in Kincardine and Deeside Districts is used to develop a model which predicts the distribution throughout Grampian Region; this is tested against red deer distribution in Moray District. Habitat data sets used for constructing the model are accumulated frost and altitude, obtained from maps, and land cover, derived from satellite imagery. Errors resulting from the use of Bayes’ theorem to combine data sets within the GIS and introduced in generalizing output from 50 m pixel to 1 km grid squares resolution are analysed and presented in a series of maps. This analysis of error trains is an integral part of the implemented analytical procedure and provides support to the interpretation of the results of modelling. Potential applications of the modelling procedure are discussed.