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Current societies cannot stay the same forever in the face of the strength of global forces like climate change. The question is thus not whether to change, but how system transitions and transformational change can be stewarded towards different kinds of futures. Using a simple heuristic called Three Horizons, this paper explores the dynamics of four common archetypes of system transition and transformation: Smooth Transitions, Capture and Extension, Collapse and Renewal, and Investment Bubbles. Smooth Transitions are relatively rare. The others are much more pervasive, tend to delay transition, and often produce undesirable effects. Understanding the dynamics and causes of the different archetypes generates six critical lessons for stewarding transformations. These are the need to: 1) Maintain transformational intent; 2) Navigate all archetypes simultaneously; 3) Attend to an interplay of three different patterns of innovation (sustaining, disruptive, transforming); 4) Work with three mindsets and orientations to the future (manager, entrepreneur, and visionary); 5) Establish four active modes of governance; and 6) Actively build capacities for transformational stewardship. The archetypes confirm others' findings that systemic conditions are critical in shaping opportunities for effective leadership. Yet they also suggest that how such conditions arise is partly determined by the way transformation is understood as a qualitatively distinct form of change and the availability of transformational approaches to leadership. To more rapidly advance understanding of how to steward system transition, research needs greater focus on marrying insights from larger scale system change studies with insights from those attempting to steward change on the ground and in practice.
Fazey et al. (Thu,) studied this question.