Lengths of geomagnetic polarity intervals

Variations in the lengths of geomagnetic polarity, intervals are analyzed by means of a probability model based on the theory of Bernouli trials. Polarity reversals are assumed to occur as the result of the interaction between steady oscillations of the geomagnetic dipole and secular variations of the nondipole field. The particular cycle on which a polarity inversion occurs is determined by the magnitude of the nondipole field, which is assumed to vary randomly and independently of dipole variations. The reversal properties of the geomagnetic dynamo are characterized by the single parameter p, the probability that a polarity inversion will occur during one cycle of change in the geomagnetic dipole moment. From an analysis of polarity changes during the past 10 m.y., the value of p is estimated to be 0.05. During the Permian period, it was at least two orders of magnitude smaller. The analysis suggests that within the past 10 m.y. there have occurred hitherto undiscovered short geomagnetic polarity events with durations shorter than 0.05 m.y.