LARSI-TPE-XGB: Short-Term Load Forecasting by Load-Adaptive Relative Strength Index and Fusion of Tree-Structured Parzen Estimator and XGBoost

Power load forecasting is essential for optimizing power generation and distribution efficiency. This paper proposes a novel method for daily average load forecasting, referred to as LARSI-TPE-XGB, which integrates the Load-Adaptive Relative Strength Index (LARSI) with the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Our method significantly improves the accuracy and generalization ability of short-term load forecasting (STLF) by addressing limitations in feature extraction and hyperparameter optimization. The proposed LARSI enhances the forecasting model by adapting an improved Relative Strength Index (RSI) for power load prediction, while TPE optimizes the model's hyperparameters to dynamically adjust to time-series updates, thus mitigating the issue of XGBoost's sensitivity to hyperparameters in high-dimensional scenarios. Experimental results on real-world power load datasets demonstrate that LARSI-TPE-XGB reduces errors by 18.58% and 30.73% in root mean squared error (RMSE) across two different datasets compared to models without LARSI-TPE-XGB and outperforms state-of-the-art models, as confirmed by the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test. Our method consistently improves performance across various datasets, while we further investigate the influence of LARSI and other factors, such as weather conditions, on forecasting accuracy.