ABSTRACT Forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) activities has long been a major focus. East China (EC) is a key region that is vulnerable to TC originating from the western North Pacific. In this study, we utilize two reanalysis datasets spanning from 1979 to 2009 and propose an effective statistical seasonal forecasting model, named the Sun Yat‐sen University (SYSU) model, to predict the annual TC landfalls on EC based on preseason environmental predictors. Comprehensive predictor sampling and multiple linear regression analysis reveal that the 850‐hPa geopotential height over West Asia and South Pacific in February, the 500‐hPa geopotential height over West Asia in March, and the 300‐hPa geopotential height over North America in April are the key predictors. The correlation coefficient over 1979–2009 between the model results and observations reaches 0.84. The model has been validated by the leave‐one‐out and threefold cross‐validation methods, as well as the recent 15‐year observations (2010–2024). The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Pacific‐North American pattern, and Arctic Oscillation are proposed to be the possible physical linkages or mechanisms underlying the model. The SYSU model exhibits a 98% hit rate over 1979–2024 (45 out of 46), highlighting the potential for operation.
Luo et al. (Fri,) studied this question.