The effect of output level and inflation on food security in Ethiopia: an empirical analysis using the ARDL framework

Ethiopia has experienced years of robust economic growth, with an average annual growth rate of 6%. However, the country continues to grapple with food insecurity, which is exacerbated by high food prices. The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of output level and inflation on Ethiopia's food security situation. The researchers utilized quarterly interpolated time-series data from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2019. The data was analyzed using an autoregressive distributive lag framework for cointegration. The study's significant findings unequivocally demonstrate that a high output level has a positive effect on Ethiopia's food security situation in both the short and long terms, while showing a weak coefficient in the long run. However, unpredictable political contexts, rising food prices, and fluctuations in global pricing negatively affect this impact. The paper suggests that, alongside the level of output, sustaining improvements in Ethiopia's food security status necessitates enhancing production capacity, restoring stability, mitigating food price inflation, and strengthening disaster management.