Predicting 10‐Year Care Requirements for Older People with Suspected Alzheimer's Disease

OBJECTIVE: To describe the types and costs of care received for 10 years after the identification of an older person with suspected Alzheimer's disease (AD) by using data from 3254 patients with suspected AD who participated in the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS). METHODS: By using a Markov model derived using grade of membership techniques, the following were determined: survival probabilities at 10 years; years of survival during the 10 years; years in institutions; years with two or more impairments in basic activities of daily living; hours of paid and informal care while the older person lived in the community; and costs of paid community, institutional, and medical care. RESULTS: Greater degrees of cognitive impairment present when AD was identified were associated with reduced predicted probability of surviving 10 years, increased predicted number of years spent in institutions, increased hours of care required while affected individuals remained in the community, and increased costs of paid community, institutional, and medical care. Substantial differences between men and women were seen: severity-adjusted 10-year costs were almost two times higher for women with AD than for men (75, 000 compared with 44, 000) ; according to sensitivity analysis, average 10-year costs might be as high as 109, 000 for women and 67, 000 for men. CONCLUSIONS: AD imposes a substantial burden on older persons. Interventions that slow the progression of the disease may therefore affect community survival as well as healthcare costs.