Combining clinical notes with structured electronic health records enhances the prediction of mental health crises

An automatic prediction of mental health crises can improve caseload prioritization and enable preventative interventions, improving patient outcomes and reducing costs. We combine structured electronic health records (EHRs) with clinical notes from 59,750 de-identified patients to predict the risk of mental health crisis relapse within the next 28 days. The results suggest that an ensemble machine learning model that relies on structured EHRs and clinical notes when available, and relying solely on structured data when the notes are unavailable, offers superior performance over models trained with either of the two data streams alone. Furthermore, the study provides key takeaways related to the required amount of clinical notes to add value in predictive analytics. This study sheds light on the untapped potential of clinical notes in the prediction of mental health crises and highlights the importance of choosing an appropriate machine learning method to combine structured and unstructured EHRs.