Success in elite cycling: A prospective and retrospective analysis of race results

The development of peak performances is a main research focus in sports science. It is unclear how many former top junior athletes achieve success in the elite class later. The aim of the present study was to examine the careers of athletes who participated in major junior or adult/elite cycling events using prospective and retrospective analysis of competition results. The official results of major junior (age 18 years) cycling races from 1980 to 2004 were analysed. Age-related aspects, career lengths, and success were compared between riders who presented results in both junior and elite races (JUNIOR ELITE) and riders who had no junior race results (ELITE ONLY). Altogether, 27,454 results of 8004 athletes from 108 countries were collected. We found that 29.4% of the elite athletes had participated in junior World Championships, and that 34% of the participants in junior World Championships later participated in major elite competitions. JUNIOR ELITE athletes are significantly more successful in several cycling disciplines and have their first and last elite result at a younger age than ELITE ONLY athletes. No difference was found in career lengths. The data presented here emphasize the importance of long-term training programmes in the development of peak performance in cycling.