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The present report provides an analysis of the potential effect of the COVID-19 outbreak on EU27 employment, as the result of tourism flow slowdown. Based on the results of recent surveys, the document quantifies the potential changes in tourist behaviour during the Summer and Autumn of 2020, as consequences of travel and mobility limitations, psychological and economic factors. Therefore, three potential scenarios for the coming months in relation to the volume of tourist arrivals are described, dependent on the evolution and spread of the virus. Subsequently, considering the tourism-employment relationship, the report displays an estimation for the number of jobs at risk in the EU27 in 2020, as a result of the slowdown of tourism activities. The report concludes by providing policy-recommendations for the short, medium and long-term.
Anabela et al. (Wed,) studied this question.