The Political Consequences of Independence Referenda in Liberal Democracies: Quebec, Scotland, and Catalonia

This article investigates the extent to which independence referenda that do not lead to independence affect the politics of national minority communities and the larger multinational states that contain them. Using the cases of Quebec, Scotland, and Catalonia, the article analyzes the consequences of independence referenda for the nationalist party that initiated them, for popular support for the independence option, and for the state’s practices for managing nationalist movements. The article concludes that the party promoting independence in a referendum is not harmed, at least in the short term, by its defeat; that independence referenda do not generate significant long-term support for the independence option, although they help to legitimize that option; and that referenda do not prompt governments to move toward more accommodation of nationalist movements, unless they formally commit to a specific change during the campaign. The nature and extent of the impact of independence referenda on the politics of national minority communities and the multinational states are largely determined by the dynamics of referendum campaigns, where the competition between nationalist and unionist forces plays out.