Nonstationarity of Production Relationships in Exploited Populations

Stock assessment usually proceeds from the assumption that there are time-invariant relationships between stock size and rate processes such as recruitment, although such relationships are difficult to discern due to noise caused by factors other than stock size. There are good biological reasons not to trust this assumption in exploited populations, where persistent environmental changes and shifts in stock structure may cause various parameters to change. Graphical and statistical procedures can be used to detect this nonstationarity in historical data sets for which stock size has varied so as to repeatedly sample a range of sizes. The policy implications of nonstationarity depend on whether the changes are clearly observable as deviations from known, Song-term baseline responses. If the changes are observable, it is usually best to pretend that the current deviation will persist unless strong constraints on policy change make it necessary to plan for changes that may occur far into the future. If the changes are not observable (the usual case), then it is necessary to make a difficult policy choice between passively waiting for informative stock responses versus actively experimenting with harvest rates so as to quickly get information about responses over a range of stock sizes.