Does Residency Selection Criteria Predict Performance in Orthopaedic Surgery Residency?

BACKGROUND: More than 1000 candidates applied for orthopaedic residency positions in 2014, and the competition is intense; approximately one-third of the candidates failed to secure a position in the match. However, the criteria used in the selection process often are subjective and studies have differed in terms of which criteria predict either objective measures or subjective ratings of resident performance by faculty. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: Do preresidency selection factors serve as predictors of success in residency? Specifically, we asked which preresidency selection factors are associated or correlated with (1) objective measures of resident knowledge and performance; and (2) subjective ratings by faculty. METHODS: Charts of 60 orthopaedic residents from our institution were reviewed. Preresidency selection criteria examined included United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1 and Step 2 scores, Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) scores, number of clinical clerkship honors, number of letters of recommendation, number of away rotations, Alpha Omega Alpha (AOA) honor medical society membership, fourth-year subinternship at our institution, and number of publications. Resident performance was assessed using objective measures including American Board of Orthopaedic Surgery (ABOS) Part I scores and Orthopaedics In-Training Exam (OITE) scores and subjective ratings by faculty including global evaluation scores and faculty rankings of residents. We tested associations between preresidency criteria and the subsequent objective and subjective metrics using linear correlation analysis and Mann-Whitney tests when appropriate. RESULTS: Objective measures of resident performance namely, ABOS Part I scores, had a moderate linear correlation with the USMLE Step 2 scores (r = 0.55, p < 0.001) and number of clinical honors received in medical school (r = 0.45, p < 0.001). OITE scores had a weak linear correlation with the number of clinical honors (r = 0.35, p = 0.009) and USMLE Step 2 scores (r = 0.29, p = 0.02). With regards to subjective outcomes, AOA membership was associated with higher scores on the global evaluation (p = 0.005). AOA membership also correlated with higher global evaluation scores (r = 0.60, p = 0.005) with the strongest correlation existing between AOA membership and the "interpersonal and communication skills" subsection of the global evaluations. CONCLUSIONS: We found that USMLE Step 2, number of honors in medical school clerkships, and AOA membership demonstrated the strongest correlations with resident performance. Our goal in analyzing these data was to provide residency programs at large a sense of which criteria may be "high yield" in ranking applicants by analyzing data from within our own pool of residents. Similar studies across a broader scope of programs are warranted to confirm applicability of our findings. The continually emerging complexities of the field of orthopaedic surgery lend increasing importance to future work on the appropriate selection and training of orthopaedic residents.