Following the 2022 disruption of Russian pipeline gas, European countries shifted toward liquefied natural gas (LNG) at markedly different speeds; yet, the drivers of this variation remain poorly understood. This study asks what explains these differences. Using a balanced panel of eight major European gas importers over 2015–2024 (80 observations), the study models the share of LNG in total gas imports as the dependent variable, reversing the conventional approach that treats LNG as an explanatory variable for gas prices. The interaction between the post-2022 structural break and storage fill levels is negative and statistically significant (β = −0.006, p = 0.019 clustered; p = 0.002 Driscoll-Kraay), suggesting that countries with lower storage reserves tended to increase their LNG dependence more strongly. This result is robust across seven of eight specifications and survives time-trend controls and leave-one-country-out analysis. Marginal effects reveal that the storage–LNG relationship was absent before the shock and emerged only after the disruption. Renewable energy penetration emerges as a significant positive predictor.
Abdelkawy et al. (Mon,) studied this question.