The simple-MOND boost raised the probability of a 20/20 pass count to 6.7% compared to 3.5% with independent draws, but did not remove the population-level tension.
The simple-MOND boost raises P(20/20) to 6.7% but does not remove the population-level tension, leading to a strained population prior closure.
Absolute Event Rate: 6.7% vs 3.5%
CDN-344 propagates the CDN-343 lognormal concentration prior through the full 20-lens SLACS contracted Channel B ledger. Using c0=10. 0 and sigmaₗog10 (c) =0. 15 dex, the paper distinguishes coherent single-c closure from independent lens-by-lens concentration draws. Coherent full-sample closure remains a 21. 2% upper-tail event at c>=13. 174, but independent BE draws yield expected pass count 17. 67/20, P (20/20) =3. 5%, and P (>=19/20) =24. 0%. The simple-MOND boost raises P (20/20) to 6. 7% but does not remove the population-level tension. Verdict: POPULATIONPRIORCLOSURESTRAINED.
Nicky Joseph Hubertus Catharina Hacquier (Thu,) reported a other. simple-MOND boost vs. independent BE draws was evaluated on P(20/20) pass count. The simple-MOND boost raised the probability of a 20/20 pass count to 6.7% compared to 3.5% with independent draws, but did not remove the population-level tension.
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