Predictors of Progression From Prehypertension to Hypertension in Japanese Men

BACKGROUND: This 3-year prospective study in middle-aged Japanese men with prehypertension examined the usefulness of the plasma levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and the brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) as predictors of the development to hypertension as compared with other previously proposed markers, such as the age, initial blood pressure, heart rate, obesity, smoking, and alcohol intake. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among 777 men with prehypertension (42 +/- 8 years old), hypertension developed in 58 men during the observation period. Significant elevation of blood pressure during this 3-year follow-up was not observed in some, but not all, subjects. Univariate linear regression analysis demonstrated that baPWV, body mass index (BMI), age, and alcohol intake, but not plasma levels of CRP, heart rate, and smoking, on the first examination were significant variables related to the changes in systolic blood pressure from the first examination to the second examination. Multivariate linear regression analysis confirmed that baPWV and BMI were weak but significant independent variables related to the changes in systolic blood pressure (R(2) = 0.03). The logistic regression analysis demonstrated that baPWV >13.5 m/s (adjusted odds ratio = 3.32 (1.79-6.15)) and BMI >25.0 (adjusted odds ratio = 2.27 (1.25 - 4.13)) were significant predictors of future hypertension independent of blood pressure on the first examination. CONCLUSION: This 3-year prospective study suggested that the baPWV and BMI, but not plasma CRP levels, are not powerful but significant independent markers to identify middle-aged Japanese men with prehypertension at high risk for hypertension.