This is an atypical essay that provides a prognosis of Sino–American relations in Donald Trump’s second presidential term. It is long on social science generalizations about broad patterns and central tendencies and short on specific forecasts. We focus on Trump’s personality, his policy style, and the broader international environment that shapes Sino–American relations. We argue Trumpism has profound impacts on US political culture and foreign policy coherence. The political discord and cultural division created by Trumpism will not go away after Trump. The “America First” policy and “Liberation Day” tariffs of Trump’s second term are kicking the world into turbulence, but it is not the objective of this essay to examine specific items that bear watching or implications that are derivative of known proclivities under Trump 2.0. This essay instead integrates character analysis with macro-level geopolitical trends to explore the potential trajectory of Sino–American relations. We argue that the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship is poised to enter a more unpredictable and tumultuous period that is fraught with risk.
Chan et al. (2025) studied this question.