This study examines the impact of international crude oil price fluctuations on the USD-INR exchange rate in India from 2019 to 2024, a period marked by significant geopolitical and economic disruptions. Employing regression analysis, correlation measures, and hypothesis testing, the research identifies a moderate positive relationship between oil prices and the exchange rate, with findings indicating that rising crude oil prices significantly depreciate the Indian rupee. The analysis further reveals that geopolitical events, notably the Russia-Ukraine war, substantially influenced exchange rate dynamics. These results underscore India's vulnerability to global oil market volatility due to high import dependence and highlight the importance of strategic policy measures such as energy diversification and risk management. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and investors seeking to mitigate external shocks and enhance economic resilience in energy-dependent emerging economies.
Gobbilla et al. (2025) studied this question.