Main roads are usually equipped with traffic flow monitoring devices in the road network to record the traffic flow data of the main roads in real time. Three complex scenarios, i.e., Y-junctions, multi-lane merging, and signalized intersections, are considered in this paper by developing a novel modeling system that leverages only historical main-road data to reconstruct branch-road volumes and identify pivotal time points where instantaneous observations enable robust inference of period-aggregate traffic volumes. Four mathematical models (I–IV) are built using the data given in appendix, with performance quantified via error metrics (RMSE, MAE, MAPE) and stability indices (perturbation sensitivity index, structure similarity score). Finally, the significant traffic flow change points are further identified by the PELT algorithm.
Wang et al. (2025) studied this question.