The urban fire risk (UFR) poses a significant threat in the City of Santa Fe, Argentina, where the lack of targeted guidelines for implementing preventive and protective measures, coupled with the absence of a comprehensive UFR map, constrains the city's ability to identify the most at-risk areas effectively. Accordingly, this study aims to develop a citywide UFR model by integrating expert knowledge and performing sensitivity analysis to ensure the robustness of the results. This spatial model, integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process with a GIS, was developed at a 100-meter resolution. This approach enabled the weighting of nine criteria, which were then combined with geospatial data to produce a risk map categorized into five levels: low, moderate, high, very high, and extreme. The reliability of the criteria weights was validated using the Consistency Ratio and the Geometric Consistency Index. The model’s sensitivity was evaluated using the One-At-a-Time local analysis method and the Sobol global analysis method. The criteria related to population and infrastructures were identified as the most influential criteria in UFR. Furthermore, 36% of the city was classified as high-risk, with the city center identified as very high-risk, while two densely populated neighborhoods were categorized as extreme-risk. This study aids authorities in identifying the most critical risk factors and prioritizing the most exposed areas, enabling the implementation of strategies to mitigate UFR.
Sophie Mendizabal (2025) studied this question.